What does MET Office report says on Turkey

Full version of the report can be found at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/l/k/Turkey.pdf

Climate observations

• There has been a coherent warming trend during summer over Turkey since 1960 and in the annual regional average mean, minimum and maximum temperature since the 1990s.
• Since 1960 there have been widespread decreases in the frequency of cool nights and increases in the frequency of warm nights.
• Changes in precipitation are mixed with decreases in winter in the west and increases in autumn in the north.

Climate change projections

• For the A1B emissions scenario projected temperature increases over Turkey are around 2.5-3°C in the north, 3-3.5°C over central and south-western regions, and 3.5-4.0°C in the east. There is consistently good agreement between the CMIP3 models over Turkey and the region in general.
• Turkey is projected to experience mainly decreases in precipitation, in common with the wider Mediterranean and majority of the Middle East. Decreases of over 20% are projected in the south of the country, with strong agreement across the CMIP3 ensemble. Smaller changes of between 0-10% are projected towards the north, but with more moderate agreement between the CMIP3 models.

Climate change impacts projections

Crop yields

• The majority of global- and regional-scale studies included here generally project declines in maize yields, one of the country’s major crops.
• National-scale studies broadly concur with the global- and regional-scale projections of a decline in maize yields in the future.

Food security

• Turkey is currently a country with extremely low levels of undernourishment. The majority of global-scale studies included here project a positive outlook for the impact of climate change on food security in Turkey. Considering land-based food production, Turkey is not projected to face severe food insecurity over the next 40 years.

Water stress and drought

• Several global- and national-scale studies included here project that droughts in Turkey could increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change, with the greatest potential impacts projected for the south of the country.
• There is also consensus among global-, national- and sub-national-scale studies included here that water stress in Turkey could increase with climate change.
• Recent simulations by the AVOID programme project a median increase of around 45% of Turkey’s population to be exposed to increases in water stress by 2100 under the A1B emissions scenario. Under an aggressive mitigation scenario, this increase is limited to 30%.

Fluvial Flooding

• The consensus across the few published studies into the impact of climate change on fluvial flooding for Turkey suggests that extreme flood events could occur less frequently than present under climate change.
• Supporting this, recent simulations from the AVOID programme also indicate that flood risk in Turkey could decrease with climate change throughout the 21st century.

Coastal regions

• A number of national-scale studies suggest that Turkey could experience appreciable coastal impacts from SLR.
• One study estimates that the population in Turkey exposed to SLR is around 428,000 along the Mediterranean coast, 208,000 along the Aegean coast, 842,000 in the Marmara region and 201,000 along the Black Sea coast.

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